NVDA Earnings X-Ray — EarningsEdge

01 The Pattern Last 8 quarters

8/8

Beat Rate

4/8

Sell-the-News

4.6%

Avg Absolute Move

±5.6%

Current Implied

~7/8

Straddle Seller Wins

Quarter	Date	Pre-Earnings Drift	Similarity	EPS Est	EPS Act	Surprise	Rev Est	Rev Act	Post-Earnings Move
Q4 FY26	Feb 25, 2026	+4.0% 5d+3.7% 10d+3.7% 1m	CURRENT	$1.53	$1.62	+5.9%	$66.21B	$68.13B	-5.5%
Q3 FY26	Nov 19, 2025	-3.8% 5d-4.5% 10d+3.5% 1m	67%	$1.24	$1.30	+4.8%	$55.3B	$57.0B	+2.9%
Q2 FY26	Aug 27, 2025	+3.5% 5d— 10d+1.3% 1m	87%	$1.00	$1.05	+5.0%	$45.5B	$46.7B	-0.8%
Q1 FY26	May 28, 2025	+0.3% 5d+3.8% 10d+23.7% 1m	65%	$0.80	$0.84	+5.0%	$43.3B	$44.1B	+3.3%
Q4 FY25	Feb 26, 2025	-5.7% 5d-1.1% 10d+1.8% 1m	67%	$0.85	$0.89	+4.7%	$38.0B	$39.3B	-8.5%
Q3 FY25	Nov 20, 2024	-0.3% 5d+0.2% 10d+4.5% 1m	81%	$0.75	$0.81	+8.0%	$33.1B	$35.1B	+0.5%
Q2 FY25	Aug 28, 2024	-2.2% 5d+6.4% 10d+7.3% 1m	75%	$0.64	$0.68	+6.3%	$28.8B	$30.0B	-6.4%
Q1 FY25	May 22, 2024	+0.3% 5d+5.0% 10d+19.2% 1m	68%	$0.52	$0.61	+17.3%	$24.6B	$26.0B	+9.3%

Get the scorecard after NVDA reports. We'll email you what happened vs. what the pattern predicted.

02 Current Context

What Happened

Q4 revenue hit $68.1B (+78% YoY). Data Center at $62.3B. Q1 FY27 guidance of $78.0B beat consensus $72.6B by 7.4%. Still dropped 5.5%.

Why It Sold Off

Goldman Sachs: "2026 growth fully priced in — market needs a clear 2027 path." Beat magnitude shrinking (17.3% → 5.9% over 8 quarters). Gross margin guided down to 70.6%.

Options Takeaway

IV of 5.6% was the lowest pre-earnings IV in 3 years. The market got complacent. Straddle sellers won, but the margin was razor-thin (5.5% actual vs 5.6% implied).

Next Catalyst

Q1 FY27 reports late May 2026. Vera Rubin chip ramp, China restrictions impact, and whether $78B guidance holds will determine the next X-Ray.

03 The Summary

NVIDIA has beaten earnings estimates in all 8 of the last 8 quarters — yet the stock has dropped 4 out of 8 times after reporting. This is the textbook sell-the-news pattern. Both fiscal Q4 reports (Feb '25 and Feb '26) saw significant selloffs of -8.5% and -5.5% despite massive beats. The options market priced in ±5.6% for Q4 FY26 — the lowest in 3 years — and the actual -5.5% move meant straddle sellers barely survived. Over the last 8 quarters, implied moves have overstated actual moves ~88% of the time, making NVDA one of the most reliable straddle-seller names in mega-cap tech.

📊 Pattern confirmed: Beat + sell-the-news. Straddle sellers won (barely). Fiscal Q4 selloff pattern held for the 2nd consecutive year.

Don't trade NVDA earnings blind.

Get the scorecard after earnings — we'll show you exactly how the pattern performed vs. reality.