Predictive X-Ray
BULL
Webull Corporation
Reports Mar 4, 2026 AMC
Implied Move ±9.5%
Beat Rate 1/3
Straddle Seller 3/3
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Current Price
$6.04 —
5-Day Drift —
10-Day Drift —
1-Month —
52W High $79.56
Short Int. 4.7%
Static · Feb 28
01 The Pattern Last 3 quarters
1/3
Beat Rate
0/1
Sell-the-News
~0.9%
Avg Absolute Move
±9.5%
Current Implied
3/3
Straddle Seller Wins
Quarter Date Pre-Earnings Drift Similarity EPS Est EPS Act Surprise Rev Est Rev Act Post-Earnings Move
Q3 2025 Nov 20, 2025 -8.4% 5d-14.3% 10d-25.5% 1m 91% $0.02 $0.07 +250% $140M $156.9M
+0.5%
Q2 2025 Aug 28, 2025 +2.8% 5d-5.0% 10d+3.4% 1m 41% $0.04 $0.04 In-line N/A $131.5M
+1.6%
Q1 2025 May 22, 2025 +9.8% 5d-25.4% 10d-30.8% 1m 42% N/A −$0.06 N/A N/A $117.4M
-3.0%
Get the scorecard after BULL reports. We'll email you what happened vs. what the pattern predicted.
02 Current Context
Earnings Estimates
EPS: $0.04-0.05 | Revenue: ~$160M+ (extrapolating from Q3's $157M with continued growth). Revenue acceleration from +32% → +46% → +55% YoY is the key metric.
The Cash Floor
$2.05B cash on a $2.9B market cap — that's $3.86/share in cash vs $5.76 stock price. You're paying just $1.90/share for the operating business. Downside may be limited by cash backing.
The SPAC Hangover
Collapsed from $79.56 (Day 2 IPO frenzy) to $5.76 — 93% decline. SEPA equity draw facility = ongoing dilution risk. Shares outstanding up 60.8% YoY. Only 2 analysts cover it (both Buy, avg PT $16.50).
The Meta Angle
A trading platform company, reporting earnings, analyzed by traders using tools like EarningsEdge. There's a self-referential irony here that makes great content for r/wallstreetbets and FinTwit.
03 The Summary
Webull is the meta play of this earnings week — a trading platform reporting earnings to an audience of traders. With only 3 quarters of public history (IPO'd via SPAC in April 2025), the pattern data is extremely limited. What we know: earnings reactions have been remarkably muted (0.5%, 1.6%, -3%) despite the stock being wildly volatile between earnings (from $79.56 Day 2 peak to $5.76 now — a 93% collapse). Revenue is accelerating sharply (Q3 +55% YoY), and 65% of the market cap ($2.05B) is cash. Straddle sellers have won all 3 prior earnings, but with 9.5% implied vs ~0.9% average actual, the premium is enormous relative to historical moves.
💰 The pattern says: Straddle sellers' paradise. All 3 prior earnings moved <2%. Current implied of 9.5% is 10x the average actual move. Premium is wildly overpriced — if the pattern holds.
Don't trade BULL earnings blind.
Get the scorecard after earnings — we'll show you exactly how the pattern performed vs. reality.
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