Predictive X-Ray
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc.
Reports Mar 4, 2026 BMO
Implied Move ±15-20%
Beat Rate ~3/6
Straddle Seller ~5/6
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Current Price
$17.69 —
5-Day Drift —
10-Day Drift —
1-Month —
52W High $58.15
Short Int. 12.5% of float
Static · Feb 28
01 The Pattern Last 6 quarters
~3/6
Beat Rate
~5/6
Sell-the-News
5-7%
Avg Absolute Move
±15-20%
Current Implied
~5/6
Straddle Seller Wins
Quarter Date Pre-Earnings Drift Similarity EPS Est EPS Act Surprise Rev Est Rev Act Post-Earnings Move
Q3 2025 Nov 10, 2025 -15.4% 5d-17.8% 10d-39.8% 1m 86% −$0.04 −$0.03 +25% $2.17M $1.95M
-7.0%
Q2 2025 Aug 12, 2025 -1.6% 5d+12.0% 10d+27.4% 1m 10% −$0.04 −$0.05 Miss $1.87M $1.80M
-2.1%
Q1 2025 May 12, 2025 +19.2% 5d+25.3% 10d+26.9% 1m 4% −$0.04 −$0.06 Miss $2.55M $1.47M
-7.0%
Q4 2024 Mar 5, 2025 -11.9% 5d-25.8% 10d-40.4% 1m 84% −$0.08 −$0.08 In-line $2.50M $2.27M
-5.0%
Q3 2024 Nov 12, 2024 +33.0% 5d+2.1% 10d+84.0% 1m 2% −$0.07 −$0.05 +29% $3.39M $2.38M
+2.0%
Q2 2024 Aug 7, 2024 -24.3% 5d-23.5% 10d-27.8% 1m 63% −$0.10 −$0.07 +30% $3.0M $3.04M
+0.0%
Get the scorecard after RGTI reports. We'll email you what happened vs. what the pattern predicted.
02 Current Context
Earnings Estimates
EPS: −$0.04 | Revenue: $2.46M. Revenue has been declining for 4 consecutive quarters. $600-884M in cash provides years of runway regardless.
Quantum Reality Check
IonQ just reported $61.9M in Q4 revenue (+429% YoY). Rigetti's entire TTM revenue is $7.5M. Excluded from DARPA Phase B — a competitive setback. Targeting 150+ qubits by end-2026.
Valuation Disconnect
Market cap: $5.6B. TTM Revenue: $7.5M. P/S ratio: ~780×. This is priced for a quantum computing future that's years away. Any negative sentiment shift could be devastating.
Technical Picture
Down 71% from ATH ($58.15 → $16.82). Down 45% since last earnings. Short interest at 12.5%. Already deeply oversold — but no fundamental floor.
03 The Summary
Rigetti is the ultimate narrative stock — a $5.6B company generating $7.5M in annual revenue (P/S ratio: ~780×). Earnings results are almost irrelevant to the stock price. The +1,000% rally from mid-2024 to Oct 2025 was entirely driven by quantum computing hype, and the subsequent -71% crash from $58.15 to $16.82 was driven by hype deflation, not earnings misses. Revenue has been declining quarter-over-quarter. On pure earnings events, actual moves have been relatively muted (5-7%), which means straddle sellers typically win — but the risk of a sector-wide catalyst (like the Google Willow chip announcement) making the position explode is ever-present.
🎲 The pattern says: Earnings don't move this stock — quantum sentiment does. Revenue at $2M/quarter can't justify the valuation. Watch IonQ's momentum and DARPA Phase B for the real catalysts.
Don't trade RGTI earnings blind.
Get the scorecard after earnings — we'll show you exactly how the pattern performed vs. reality.
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