Predictive X-Ray
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
Reports Mar 2, 2026 AMC
Implied Move ±15.3%
Beat Rate 3/8
Straddle Seller ~5-6/8
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Current Price
$86.92 —
5-Day Drift —
10-Day Drift —
1-Month —
52W High $129.89
Short Int. 28% of float
Static · Feb 28
01 The Pattern Last 8 quarters
3/8
Beat Rate
0/3
Sell-the-News
~22%
Avg Absolute Move
±15.3%
Current Implied
~5-6/8
Straddle Seller Wins
Quarter Date Pre-Earnings Drift Similarity EPS Est EPS Act Surprise Rev Est Rev Act Post-Earnings Move
Q3 2025 Nov 10, 2025 -3.4% 5d-13.5% 10d-24.1% 1m 84% −$0.21 −$0.45 −114% $21.87M $14.7M
-1.2%
Q2 2025 Aug 11, 2025 -10.6% 5d-15.3% 10d-4.1% 1m 67% −$0.21 −$0.41 −95% $5.56M $1.16M
+13.0%
Q1 2025 May 12, 2025 +9.7% 5d+12.0% 10d+16.7% 1m 17% −$0.26 −$0.20 +23% $10.94M $0.72M
+3.0%
Q4 2024 Mar 3, 2025 -10.3% 5d-20.2% 10d+26.6% 1m 36% −$0.21 −$0.18 +14% $3.22M $4.42M
+1.7%
Q3 2024 Nov 14, 2024 +24.9% 5d+12.6% 10d-5.9% 1m 16% −$0.20 −$1.10 −450% $1.8M $1.1M
-13.8%
Q2 2024 Aug 14, 2024 +6.0% 5d+0.6% 10d+55.3% 1m 13% −$0.22 −$0.51 −132% $7.58M $0.9M
-5.0%
Q1 2024 May 15, 2024 +3.9% 5d+5.8% 10d+16.6% 1m 22% −$0.20 −$0.16 +20% $5.0M $0.5M
+68.0%
Q4 2023 Apr 1, 2024 -4.7% 5d-16.2% 10d-18.1% 1m 79% −$0.21 −$0.35 −67% N/A N/A
-2.0%
Get the scorecard after ASTS reports. We'll email you what happened vs. what the pattern predicted.
02 Current Context
Earnings Estimates
EPS: −$0.18 | Revenue: $40.69M. Company guided H2 2025 revenue at $50–75M. Analysts expect losses to narrow as commercial service ramps.
What to Watch
Satellite launch timeline updates (45-60 planned by end 2026). New MNO partner announcements. Government contract wins. $30M SDA contract just awarded Feb 23.
Short Squeeze Setup
28% short interest on the float — among the highest for stocks >$20B market cap. If report triggers a rally, shorts covering could amplify the move dramatically.
Risk Flags
Stock down 35% from ATH ($129.89 on Jan 30). Pre-earnings drift is negative. Pomerantz Law Firm investigating securities claims. Cash burn is significant ($122M net loss last quarter).
03 The Summary
ASTS is not a fundamentals stock — it's a narrative and milestone stock. The company has missed EPS 5 out of 8 quarters and missed revenue in nearly every quarter, yet the stock surged +68% on an EPS beat in May 2024 and +13% on a double miss in Aug 2025. What actually moves this stock: satellite launches, MNO partnerships, and government contracts. The current ±15.3% implied move is lower than the historical 22% average, but that average is heavily skewed by the +68% outlier. Options traders are extremely bullish (call/put ratio at 2.07, 75th percentile). Short interest at 28% of float creates squeeze potential on any positive surprise.
⚡ The pattern says: Ignore the numbers, watch the narrative. Satellite milestones and guidance matter 10x more than EPS. Short squeeze potential is real.
Don't trade ASTS earnings blind.
Get the scorecard after earnings — we'll show you exactly how the pattern performed vs. reality.
Want the ASTS scorecard? →