AVGO Earnings X-Ray — EarningsEdge

01 The Pattern Last 8 quarters

8/8

Beat Rate

3/8

Sell-the-News

11.5%

Avg Absolute Move

±9.1%

Current Implied

~2-3/8

Straddle Seller Wins

Quarter	Date	Pre-Earnings Drift	Similarity	EPS Est	EPS Act	Surprise	Rev Est	Rev Act	Post-Earnings Move
Q4 FY25	Dec 11, 2025	+6.7% 5d+2.2% 10d+14.4% 1m	32%	$1.87	$1.95	+4.3%	$17.45B	$18.02B	-11.4%
Q3 FY25	Sep 4, 2025	+1.9% 5d+5.1% 10d+1.5% 1m	42%	$1.66	$1.69	+1.8%	$15.83B	$15.95B	+9.4%
Q2 FY25	Jun 5, 2025	+7.4% 5d+13.1% 10d+26.9% 1m	20%	$1.57	$1.58	+0.6%	$14.97B	$15.00B	-5.0%
Q1 FY25	Mar 6, 2025	-9.3% 5d-20.9% 10d-22.7% 1m	64%	$1.50	$1.60	+6.7%	$14.61B	$14.92B	+8.6%
Q4 FY24	Dec 12, 2024	+6.0% 5d+13.1% 10d+4.1% 1m	30%	$1.38	$1.42	+2.9%	$14.09B	$14.05B	+24.4%
Q3 FY24	Sep 5, 2024	-3.4% 5d-7.8% 10d+12.1% 1m	55%	$1.20	$1.24	+3.3%	$12.96B	$13.07B	-10.4%
Q2 FY24	Jun 12, 2024	+5.8% 5d+7.5% 10d+8.4% 1m	32%	$1.08	$1.10	+1.9%	$12.03B	$12.49B	+12.3%
Q1 FY24	Mar 7, 2024	+8.2% 5d— 10d— 1m	41%	$1.03	$1.10	+6.8%	$11.71B	$11.96B	+4.0%

Get the scorecard after AVGO reports. We'll email you what happened vs. what the pattern predicted.

02 Current Context

Earnings Estimates

EPS: $2.03 | Revenue: $19.1B (matches guidance exactly). AI semiconductor revenue expected to double YoY to $8.2B. Focus on Q2 guidance and gross margin outlook.

AI Chip Behemoth

Designs custom AI chips (ASICs/XPUs) for Google (TPU), Meta, ByteDance. $73B AI-related backlog. Shipping industry's first 2nm 3.5D System-on-Chip. VMware integration driving software revenue +47% YoY.

Gross Margin Risk

The Dec selloff (-11.4%) was driven by gross margin guided down ~100bps to ~77%. If margin compression continues, expect a selloff even on revenue beats. This is the #1 watch item.

Straddle Math

Implied: ±9.1% ($29). Avg actual last 7Q: 11.5%. Straddle buyers would have profited in 5-6 of last 8 quarters. The implied appears ~20% underpriced vs recent actuals. This is rare for a mega-cap name.

03 The Summary

Broadcom is the straddle buyer's dream stock. Over the last 7 quarters, the average actual post-earnings move has been 11.5% — consistently exceeding implied moves in the 7-9% range. Only 2-3 of the last 8 quarters would have been profitable for straddle sellers. The current ±9.1% implied is arguably underpriced given recent behavior. There's no discernible directional pattern — moves alternate unpredictably between up and down. The Q4 FY25 result was the most telling: Broadcom beat on everything and still dropped -11.4%, with gross margin concerns cited as the trigger. This stock moves big, beats expectations, and remains directionally unpredictable.

💥 The pattern says: Big move incoming — actual moves have averaged 11.5% vs 9.1% implied. Direction is a coin flip. Straddle BUYERS have the edge here.

Don't trade AVGO earnings blind.

Get the scorecard after earnings — we'll show you exactly how the pattern performed vs. reality.