Scorecard — Q4 FY26
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
Overall Grade A
Result 4/4 Predictions Correct
Reported Feb 25, 2026 AMC
01 Prediction vs Reality
Metric X-Ray Predicted Actual Result Grade
EPS Beat Likely beat (8/8 history) $1.62 vs $1.53 est (+5.9%)
Revenue Beat Pattern suggested beat $68.13B vs $66.21B est (+2.9%)
Post-Earnings Direction Sell-the-news likely (4/8 prior drops) -5.5% drop despite massive beat
Straddle Outcome Straddle seller edge (±5.6% implied) 5.5% actual — seller won by 0.1%
02 What Happened
The NVDA pattern held perfectly. For the 2nd consecutive fiscal Q4, NVIDIA beat on every metric and still sold off — confirming the sell-the-news pattern that has defined this stock. EPS beat magnitude continued shrinking (17.3% → 5.9% over 8 quarters), which the X-Ray flagged as a concern. The straddle outcome was razor-thin: 5.5% actual vs 5.6% implied, meaning sellers won by the slimmest margin possible. Gross margin guidance of 70.6% (down from prior quarters) was the key driver of the selloff, exactly matching the X-Ray's identification of margin compression as the #1 risk.
NVDA remains the most predictable mega-cap earnings stock: beat + sell-the-news. The X-Ray's pattern analysis correctly identified all four outcomes.
← View the original X-Ray prediction
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