Predictive X-Ray
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
Reports Mar 3, 2026 AMC
Implied Move ±9.5%
Beat Rate 8/8
Straddle Seller ~6/8
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Current Price
$384.86 —
5-Day Drift —
10-Day Drift —
1-Month —
52W High $566.90
Short Int. 2.5%
Static · Feb 28
01 The Pattern Last 8 quarters
8/8
Beat Rate
3/8
Sell-the-News
6.0%
Avg Absolute Move
±9.5%
Current Implied
~6/8
Straddle Seller Wins
Quarter Date Pre-Earnings Drift Similarity EPS Est EPS Act Surprise Rev Est Rev Act Post-Earnings Move
Q3 FY26 Dec 2, 2025 +1.9% 5d-2.5% 10d-6.4% 1m 52% $0.94 $0.96 +2.1% $1.21B $1.23B
+1.5%
Q2 FY26 Aug 27, 2025 +0.8% 5d-2.2% 10d-8.8% 1m 56% $0.83 $0.93 +12.0% $1.15B $1.17B
+4.6%
Q1 FY26 Jun 3, 2025 +3.5% 5d+10.0% 10d+10.2% 1m 28% $0.65 $0.73 +12.3% $1.10B $1.10B
-5.8%
Q4 FY25 Mar 4, 2025 +2.7% 5d-14.3% 10d-1.9% 1m 50% $0.86 $1.03 +19.8% $1.03B $1.06B
-6.3%
Q3 FY25 Nov 26, 2024 +3.1% 5d+6.1% 10d+17.2% 1m 28% $0.81 $0.93 +14.8% $982M $1.01B
-4.6%
Q2 FY25 Aug 28, 2024 -3.3% 5d+3.1% 10d+13.9% 1m 38% $0.98 $1.04 +6.1% $959M $964M
+2.8%
Q1 FY25 Jun 4, 2024 -11.9% 5d-12.4% 10d-3.8% 1m 62% $0.89 $0.93 +4.5% $905M $921M
+12.0%
Q4 FY24 Mar 5, 2024 — 5d— 10d— 1m 47% $0.82 $0.95 +15.9% $839M $845M
+10.8%
Get the scorecard after CRWD reports. We'll email you what happened vs. what the pattern predicted.
02 Current Context
Earnings Estimates
EPS: $1.10 (guided $1.09–$1.11) | Revenue: $1.30B (guided $1.29–$1.30B). Near-zero room for surprise on Q4 — FY2027 guidance is the only thing that matters.
Post-Outage Recovery
Full recovery from July 2024 global IT outage. Gross retention: 97%. Net new ARR reaccelerated to $265M (+73% YoY). Falcon Flex deal value at $2.5B (+80% QoQ).
Oversold Setup
RSI at ~29 (technically oversold). Down 33% from November highs ($566 → $381). This is the deepest pre-earnings drawdown in 2+ years. Mean reversion + positive guidance = potential +10% snap.
Straddle Math
Implied: ±9.5% ($36). Avg actual move last 4Q: 4.55%. That's a 2:1 implied-to-actual ratio. Straddle sellers have won the last 4 consecutive quarters. Premium sellers' paradise if no guidance bomb.
03 The Summary
CrowdStrike has beaten EPS 8 out of 8 quarters — but the stock has sold off 3 of the last 4 times despite those beats. The critical pattern: guidance drives the reaction, not the reported quarter. All three selloffs were triggered by weak forward guidance, not actual results. Q4 FY25 dropped -6.3% on a massive 19.8% EPS beat because FY26 guidance came in 22% below consensus. The current ±9.5% implied move is 57% higher than the 8-quarter average actual of 6.0%, making this a strong straddle seller's setup — IF the move stays within historical norms. The stock is deeply oversold (RSI ~29, down 33% from Nov highs), creating potential for a sharp relief rally on positive FY27 guidance.
🎯 The pattern says: Ignore the EPS beat (it's almost certain). Watch FY2027 guidance like a hawk. Oversold RSI ~29 could fuel a snapback rally — or a capitulation if guidance disappoints again.
Don't trade CRWD earnings blind.
Get the scorecard after earnings — we'll show you exactly how the pattern performed vs. reality.
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